Distributional response of the rare and critically endangered Ilex nanchuanensis to climate change in East Asia

Abstract Global climate change, dominated by climate warming, is seriously affecting the balance of global ecosystems, but the risk of species extinction is particularly high in low-altitude mountain areas. To clarify the response of the endemic and critically endangered species Ilex nanchuanensis to climate change, this study used the MaxEnt model to simulate and predict the potential habitat of I. nanchuanensis during the Last Interglacial, Last Glacial Maximum, the current period, and two future periods (the 2050 s and 2070 s). The results showed that the hottest monthly minimum temperature is the most important climatic factor affecting the geographical distribution of I. nanchuanensis. Furthermore, I. nanchuanensis will be at risk of population shrinkage and extinction in the future, with the center of mass moving further northwest as concentrations of greenhouse gases increase, especially in the 2070 s, when its geographical distribution shrinks the most under the RCP6 scenario. Therefore, to actively respond to the impacts of climate change, protected areas should be established around the geographical distribution centers of species, and core, buffer, and experimental areas should be scientifically and rationally delineated for the conservation and cultivation of germplasm resources.