Simulation-based Inference of Radio Millisecond Pulsars in Globular Clusters

Abstract Millisecond pulsars (MSPs) are abundant in globular clusters (GCs), which offer favorable environments for their creation. While the advent of recent, powerful facilities led to a rapid increase in MSP discoveries in GCs through pulsation searches, detection biases persist. In this work, we investigate the ability of current and future detections in GCs to constrain the parameters of the MSP population in GCs through a careful study of their luminosity function. Parameters of interest are the number of MSPs hosted by a GC, as well as the mean and the width of their luminosity function, which are typically affected by large uncertainties. While, as we show, likelihood-based studies can lead to ill-behaved posteriors on the size of the MSP population, we introduce a novel, likelihood-free analysis, based on marginal neural ratio estimation, which consistently produces well-behaved posteriors. We focus on the GC Terzan 5 (or Ter 5), which currently counts 48 detected MSPs. We find that 158 <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow/> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>104</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:mn>294</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> </mml:math> MSPs should be hosted in this GC, but the uncertainty on this number remains large. We explore the performance of our new method on simulated Terzan 5-like data sets mimicking possible future observational outcomes. We find that significant improvement on the posteriors can be obtained by adding a reliable measurement of the diffuse radio emission of the GC to the analysis or by improving the detection threshold of current radio pulsation surveys by at least a factor of 2.