Explaining Protest Participation in Semi-authoritarian Regimes: The Power of Social Networks

Abstract This study uses the case of ecological protests in the Russian Federation and the social network of 903 263 VKontakte users to investigate the unique characteristics of protesters’ social networks and assess the effects of network topology on the likelihood of participation. By applying Bayesian structural equation modeling to the data, the study finds that social network topology plays a more nuanced and complex role in predicting protest participation beyond simple exposure to information. Notably, individuals situated as brokers in lower-density and higher-closure networks exhibit a higher likelihood of participation, while central nodes participate less. The results highlight the importance of strategic positioning as brokers for increasing the likelihood of participation. The paper discusses these and other findings, contributing to a deeper understanding of the interplay between social network structures and protest participation.