Assessing Future Water Scarcity in Texas under Climate Change and Growing Water Demands

The compound impact of limited water accessibility, population growth, economic prosperity, and climate change are the leading causes of water scarcity in Texas and challenges to its long-term water management strategies. This study assesses surface and groundwater scarcities in Texas for past and future periods, using the water footprint concept in municipal and agricultural sectors. The US Geological Survey’s monthly water balance model (MWBM) outputs were used to quantify the surface and groundwater availability under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. Also, future water footprints in the agricultural and municipal sectors were calculated based on the 2022 Texas State Water Development Plan. The results indicate that the East Texas and Upper Coast climate divisions are projected to experience the maximum reduction in surface blue water availability. The projected decrease in groundwater availability will lead to substantial agricultural water scarcity in western climate divisions, especially in the High Plains and Trans-Pecos. In addition, the agricultural surface blue water scarcity will exceed 100% in the counties located at Lower Valley, and more groundwater scarcity will be observed at Trans-Pecos and High Plains. The municipal sector is projected to exhibit more than 100% water scarcity in limited counties. This water scarcity analysis integrates future hydrological shifts and water demands in Texas, highlighting critical areas where agricultural and urban water needs intersect and can be further extended to encompass a comprehensive socioeconomic evaluation.