A Bayesian network approach to assess the ecosystem integrity of mangroves in Tampamachoco, Veracruz, Mexico

Given the alarming rates of mangrove forest loss, resource managers must count on information regarding the condition of the mangrove forests. We propose a Bayesian network (BN) to assess mangrove forests' ecosystem integrity (EI) to support a mangrove monitoring system in Mexico. This approach allowed us to infer the system's condition based on variables on forest structure and function. We defined the BN structure based on informal interviews with specialists on vegetation and coastal geomorphology. We applied the expectation-maximization learning algorithm to train the model. Data from plots in two mangrove areas of an Avicennia germinans forest, defined based on their undisturbed and disturbed conditions, were used as training datasets. We applied sensitivity analysis to determine the degree of influence of each model variable. We evaluated the prediction capacity of the BN with a k-fold cross-validation (the process is repeated five times, starting from the database in 2 parts). The variables selected for the model were the Holdridge complexity index (HCI, Holdridge et al., 1971), Leaf area index (LAI), litter production (g/month/m2), leaf C, N and P concentration (%), and leaf N:P ratio. The most critical variable to infer mangrove condition was leaf N:P (Variance reduction = 11%), followed by forest structure variables HCI and LAI (Variance reduction > 5%). The cross-validation to test the model resulted in a minimum square error of 0.3, which indicates a reasonable capacity to predict the condition of mangrove integrity. The BN constructed can diagnose the integrity of a monospecific mangrove forest with acceptable precision, considering the environmental factors that define the forest structure and functioning locally. We then asked the experts to review and modify the model to apply to multispecies mangrove ecosystems and environmental contexts.