An Invasion Risk Assessment of Alien Woody Species in Potential National Park Sites in Xinjiang, China, Under Climate Change

The invasion of alien woody species may have broad ecological, economic, and health impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity under climate change. Previous studies showed that disrupting the biodiversity conservation mechanisms in protected areas can seriously threaten natural ecosystems and the protection of rare and endangered species in such protected areas. However, there is currently no standard for evaluating the invasion risk of woody plants under climate change when establishing national parks in China. Therefore, we used a species distribution model to evaluate the invasion risk of 250 invasive alien woody species in potential national park sites in Xinjiang under climate change. The results indicated that the probability of forest invasion in the potential Altai Kanas National Park was determined to be significantly higher than that of the average level in Xinjiang nature reserves, both under current and future climate conditions. At the same time, the probability of invasive woody species invading coniferous forests, broad-leaved forests, and grassland ecosystems is higher in the Altai Kanas and Tianshan potential national parks. We found that <i>Acer negundo</i>, <i>Robinia pseudoacacia</i>, and <i>Amorpha fruticose</i> in potential parks in Xinjiang have higher invasion potential and thus require heightened vigilance to stop their spread. This study contributes to the monitoring and management of national parks and provides an actionable foundation for protecting ecosystem functions and minimizing the potential risk of invasive alien species under climate change.