Dynamic Interactive Effects of Technological Innovation, Transportation Industry Development, and CO2 Emissions

This paper aims to clarify the intricate relationships between technological innovation, transportation industry development, and CO2 emissions to facilitate a positive synergy among technology, the economy, and climate, advancing the fulfillment of the ‘double carbon’ goal. Utilizing panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2020, we employ the panel vector autoregressive model using a generalized method of moments to empirically examine the dynamic interactive effects between these participants. The findings reveal that the transportation industry significantly promoted the inhibitory impact of technological innovation on CO2 emissions. However, such reductions cannot counterbalance the rise in emissions from the transportation industry. Moreover, its effects varied significantly across regions. Specifically, transportation industry development within eastern China contributed to a shift in the local carbon emission effects from positive to negative under the positive influence of technological innovation. In the northeast, the transportation industry enhanced the inhibitory effect of technological innovation on CO2 emissions. In contrast, across the western region, industrial development in transportation intensified the role of technological innovation in promoting CO2 emissions. Furthermore, this work found that CO2 emissions notably diminished the CO2 reduction performance of technological innovation in the eastern part and enhanced this performance in the northeastern region. These findings further revealed the complex interplay between technological innovation, the transportation industry, and CO2 emissions. They offer insights for policymakers to tailor region-specific technologies to bolster the ‘dual carbon’ goal and sustainable transportation development strategies, thereby achieving CO2 reduction.