Ensemble Machine-Learning-Based Framework for Estimating Surface Soil Moisture Using Sentinel-1/2 Data: A Case Study of an Arid Oasis in China

Soil moisture (SM) is a critical parameter in Earth’s water cycle, significantly impacting hydrological, agricultural, and meteorological research fields. The challenge of estimating surface soil moisture from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data is compounded by the influence of vegetation coverage. This study focuses on the Weigan River and Kuche River Delta Oasis in Xinjiang, employing high-resolution Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 images in conjunction with a modified Water Cloud Model (WCM) and the grayscale co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) for feature parameter extraction. A soil moisture inversion method based on stacked ensemble learning is proposed, which integrates random forest, CatBoost, and LightGBM. The findings underscore the feasibility of using multi-source remote sensing data for oasis moisture inversion in arid regions. However, soil moisture content estimates tend to be overestimated above 10% and underestimated below 5%. The CatBoost model achieved the highest accuracy (R2 = 0.827, RMSE = 0.014 g/g) using the top 16 feature parameter groups. Additionally, the R2 values for Stacking1 and Stacking2 models saw increases of 0.008 and 0.016, respectively. Thus, integrating multi-source remote sensing data with Stacking models offers valuable support and reference for large-scale estimation of surface soil moisture content in arid oasis areas.