A Sequence-Based Hybrid Ensemble Approach for Estimating Trail Pavement Roughness Using Smartphone and Bicycle Data

Trail pavement roughness significantly impacts user experience and safety. Measuring roughness over large areas using traditional equipment is challenging and expensive. The utilization of smartphones and bicycles offers a more feasible approach to measuring trail roughness, but the current methods to capture data using these have accuracy limitations. While machine learning has the potential to improve accuracy, there have been few applications of real-time roughness evaluation. This study proposes a hybrid ensemble machine learning model that combines sequence-based modeling with support vector regression (SVR) to estimate trail roughness using smartphone sensor data mounted on bicycles. The hybrid model outperformed traditional methods like double integration and whole-body vibration in roughness estimation. For the 0.031 mi (50 m) segments, it reduced RMSE by 54–74% for asphalt concrete (AC) trails and 50–59% for Portland cement concrete (PCC) trails. For the 0.31 mi (499 m) segments, RMSE reductions of 37–60% and 49–56% for AC and PCC trails were achieved, respectively. Additionally, the hybrid model outperformed the base random forest model by 17%, highlighting the effectiveness of combining ensemble learning with sequence modeling and SVR. These results demonstrate that the hybrid model provides a cost-effective, scalable, and highly accurate alternative for large-scale trail roughness monitoring and assessment.