A multi-pathogen behavioral exposure model for young children playing in public spaces in developing communities

Diarrheal disease is the second leading cause of death among children under five in developing communities, despite active interventions to improve access to water, sanitation, and hygiene resources. Even interventions with high fidelity and compliance saw minimal improvements in health outcomes, necessitating a need for looking beyond traditionally targeted exposure pathways. This study focuses on the pathogen exposure a young child may receive while playing in the public spaces of informal settlements, where animal feces, human feces, and garbage are frequently observed. The study utilized 79 soil samples previously collected across ten cluster sites in Corail, Haiti and processed using DelAgua cultural assays and quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction methods. Molecular assays screened for Aeromonas, Vibrio cholera, and several pathogenic Escherichia coli species. Behavioral observations of young children (<5 years old) were also conducted in overlapping areas with the environmental sampling to quantify frequency of risky and mitigating behaviors. Environmental and behavioral data were combined to obtain the posterior distribution of children's pathogen exposure from playing in a public space for one hour. The model estimated that children have a likelihood of approximately 70% of being exposed to a pathogen during one hour of play and a greater than 30% chance of being exposed to multiple pathogens in the same period. While children and toddlers practice fewer risky behaviors compared to infants, they were shown to have higher likelihood of exposure and slightly higher pathogen dose per exposure. As anticipated, a high correlation between genes from the same E. coli species was observed in the model output. These findings demonstrate the need to consider public spaces as an important exposure pathway for young children for both future research and interventions.