Democratic backsliding against a rising wave of support for democracy? Explaining trends in attitudes toward democracy in Poland (1995–2021)

The analysis presented in this article tries to address a puzzle – the widely recognized process of democratic backsliding in Poland was accompanied by a steady increase in popular support for democracy. It poses a question if the two phenomena are substantively related. To establish possible connections between them, I test three hypotheses involving populist winner effect, deepening of socio-political cleavage, and generational change. The first one assumes that democracy is more supported by populists when they form a government; the second one – to the contrary – states that populist polarization creates a wider gap in support for democracy, while the third one proposes that the relation is spurious, as trends in attitudes represent a gradual, long-term social change, at least in part related to generational replacement. Results show that the direct link between populist democratic backsliding and pro-democracy surge is relatively weak, while both processes can be related to a deeper sociological process of ‘splintering’ within Polish society.