Employment uncertainty and parenthood: quantifying the mediating role of union formation

Abstract This study aims to quantify the extent to which union formation mediates the relationship between employment uncertainty and the transition to parenthood, taking Italy as a case study. Research on the determinants of low fertility is increasingly shedding light on the negative effects of employment uncertainty. It is generally acknowledged that partnership formation plays a fundamental mediating role, as uncertain employment conditions may hamper the initial formation of a stable union, consequently affecting the likelihood of having a child. Nevertheless, it remains unknown how much of the (total) effect of employment uncertainty on fertility is indeed mediated by union formation. To perform the mediation analysis, we relied on the KHB (Karlson–Holm–Breen) method to accurately assess the effect of employment uncertainty on the transition to parenthood with and without controlling for union formation, i.e. the mediating variable. Results indicate that union formation mediates between 25 and 40% of the negative effect of employment uncertainty on the transition to parenthood, especially among men. Differences by cohort groups are evident, with the youngest cohorts being the most affected by such a mediation. We conclude that union formation is a key element in the relationship between employment uncertainty and fertility as it mediates a non-negligible share of the total effect of employment uncertainty on transition to parenthood.