Active Fire Clustering and Spatiotemporal Dynamic Models for Forest Fire Management

Forest fires are increasingly destructive, contributing to significant ecological damage, carbon emissions, and economic losses. Monitoring these fires promptly and accurately, particularly by delineating fire perimeters, is critical for mitigating their impact. Satellite-based remote sensing, especially using active fire products from VIIRS and MODIS, has proven indispensable for real-time forest fire monitoring. Despite advancements, challenges remain in accurately clustering and delineating fire perimeters in a timely manner, as many existing methods rely on manual processing, resulting in delays. Active fire perimeter (AFP) and Timely Active Fire Progression (TAFP) models were developed which aim to be an automated approach for clustering active fire data points and delineating perimeters. The results demonstrated that the combined dataset achieved the highest matching rate of 85.13% for fire perimeters across all size classes, with a 95.95% clustering accuracy for fires ≥100 ha. However, the accuracy decreased for smaller fires. Overall, 1500 m radii with alpha values of 0.1 were found to be the most effective for fire perimeter delineation, particularly when applied at larger radii. The proposed models can play a critical role in improving operational responses by fire management agencies, helping to mitigate the destructive impact of forest fires more effectively.