What Political Status Did the Donbas Want? Survey Evidence on the Eve of Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine in February 2022

This article reports original survey data collected in both parts of the divided Donbas region of Ukraine on the eve of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. The research employs a methodological innovation by having the same telephone survey implemented by three different survey agencies: one based in Ukraine, one based in Russia, and one based in the UK. Comparing similarities and differences in results identify key effects induced by the origin of phone calls. The question of preference for final status in Ukraine or Russia was asked in all four samples. Regression model results are very similar for the two samples in the territories of Donbas under Kyiv’s control but there are significant differences between the Ukrainian and Russian survey companies’ results in the non-government controlled areas. The results reflect a situational response due partly to the origin of the phone calls as well as to important demographic differences in the composition of the sub-samples in a very tense environment that had experienced conflict since 2014.