Climate-driven global redistribution of an ocean giant predicts increased threat from shipping

Climate change is shifting animal distributions. However, the extent to which future global habitats of threatened marine megafauna will overlap existing human threats remains unresolved. Here we use global climate models and habitat suitability estimated from long-term satellite-tracking data of the world's largest fish, the whale shark, to show that redistributions of present-day habitats are projected to increase the species' co-occurrence with global shipping. Our model projects core habitat area losses of >50% within some national waters by 2100, with geographic shifts of over 1,000 km (∼12 km yr<sup>-1</sup>). Greater habitat suitability is predicted in current range-edge areas, increasing the co-occurrence of sharks with large ships. This future increase was ∼15,000 times greater under high emissions compared with a sustainable development scenario. Results demonstrate that climate-induced global species redistributions that increase exposure to direct sources of mortality are possible, emphasizing the need for quantitative climate-threat predictions in conservation assessments of endangered marine megafauna.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature Climate Change
Published
2024-10-07
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02129-5
Citations
15
Primary Topic
Fish Ecology and Management Studies
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
10.36

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article

Climate-driven global redistribution of an ocean giant predicts increased threat from shipping

Jessica Labaja, Nuno Queiroz, Dení Ramírez‐Macías, Gregory B. Skomal et al.
15 citations
Nature Climate Change
Fish Ecology and Management Studies
10.36
article

Climate-driven global redistribution of an ocean giant predicts increased threat from shipping

Jessica Labaja, Nuno Queiroz, Dení Ramírez‐Macías, Gregory B. Skomal, Nicolas E. Humphries, Alex R. Hearn, Marcus Sheaves, Samantha Reynolds, Héctor M. Guzmán, Elizabeth Clingham, Gonzalo Araújo, Mark G. Meekan, Robert E. Hueter, Alistair D. M. Dove, Christoph A. Rohner, Christine L. Dudgeon, Jonathan R. Green, Bradley M. Wetherbee, Abraham B. Sianipar, Rafael de la Parra, Jaime González Cano, Richard C. Fitzpatrick, Ana M. M. Sequeira, John P. Tyminski, Jesse E. M. Cochran, Michael L. Berumen, Michele Thums, Bruno C. L. Macena, Bradley M. Norman, Abdi Hasan, David Rowat, Ismail Syakurachman, Lina Maria Quintero, Mark V. Erdmann, Steffen Bach, Cesar R. Peñaherrera-Palma, Adam Barnett, Eduardo Espinoza, Royale S. Hardenstine, David P. Robinson, Lara L. Sousa, Fábio Hissa Vieira Hazin, Camrin D. Braun, Carlos Manuel Duarte, David Sims, Freya C. Womersley, Luciana C. Ferreira, Mohammed Y. Jaidah, Germán Soler, John J. Morris, Mahmood S. Shivji, Kátya Abrantes, Stella Diamant, D. Harry Webb, Felipe Ladino, Sandra Bessudo Lion, Simon R. Thorrold, Simon J. Pierce
article en
15 citations

Abstract

Climate change is shifting animal distributions. However, the extent to which future global habitats of threatened marine megafauna will overlap existing human threats remains unresolved. Here we use global climate models and habitat suitability estimated from long-term satellite-tracking data of the world's largest fish, the whale shark, to show that redistributions of present-day habitats are projected to increase the species' co-occurrence with global shipping. Our model projects core habitat area losses of >50% within some national waters by 2100, with geographic shifts of over 1,000 km (∼12 km yr<sup>-1</sup>). Greater habitat suitability is predicted in current range-edge areas, increasing the co-occurrence of sharks with large ships. This future increase was ∼15,000 times greater under high emissions compared with a sustainable development scenario. Results demonstrate that climate-induced global species redistributions that increase exposure to direct sources of mortality are possible, emphasizing the need for quantitative climate-threat predictions in conservation assessments of endangered marine megafauna.

Nature Climate ChangeVol. 14(12)
NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service (US), Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom (GB), Universidade dos Açores (PT), Australian National University (AU), Charles Darwin Foundation (EC), Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (PA), Australian Institute of Marine Science (AU), University of Auckland (NZ), The University of Queensland (AU), University of the Sunshine Coast (AU), University of Rhode Island (US), Murdoch University (AU), The University of Western Australia (AU), Universidade do Porto (PT), National Oceanography Centre (GB), Nova Southeastern University (US), Massachusetts Maritime Academy (US), Bay Institute (US), Mote Marine Laboratory (US), Florida Aquarium (US), Fremantle Hospital (AU), Secretariat of Environment and Natural Resources (MX), University of Oxford (GB), The Ocean Foundation (US), Marine Megafauna Foundation (US), Ocera Therapeutics (United States) (US), Bayer (Australia) (AU), Instituto Tecnológico de Cancún (MX), Madagascar Biodiversity Partnership (MG), Large Marine Vertebrates Research Institute Philippines (PH), Instituto de Pesca (BR), University of Southampton (GB), Qatar University (QA), Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco (BR), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (US), Universidad San Francisco de Quito (EC), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (SA), Island Conservation Society (SC), Galapagos (Belgium) (BE), James Cook University (AU)
Sight Research UK, Natural Environment Research Council
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 1%
Fish Ecology and Management Studies
10.36
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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