Measurable residual disease as predictor of post–day +100 relapses after allografting in adult AML

Measurable residual disease (MRD) by multiparametric flow cytometry (MFC) before allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) identifies patients at high risk of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) relapse, often occurring early after allografting. To examine the role of MFC MRD testing to predict later relapses, we examined 935 adults with AML or myelodysplastic neoplasm/AML transplanted in first or second morphologic remission who underwent bone marrow restaging studies between day 70 and 100 after HCT and were alive and without relapse by day +100. Of 935 adults, 136 (15%) had MRD before HCT, whereas only 11 (1%) had MRD at day +70 to +100. In day +100 landmark analyses, pre-HCT and day +70 to +100 MFC MRD were both associated with relapse (both P < .001), relapse-free survival (RFS; both P < .001) overall survival (OS; both P < .001), and, for post-HCT MRD, nonrelapse mortality (P = .001) after multivariable adjustment. Importantly, although 126/136 patients (92%) with MRD before HCT tested negative for MRD at day +70 to +100, their outcomes were inferior to those without MRD before HCT and at day +70 to +100, with 3-year relapse risk of 40% vs 15% (P < .001), 3-year RFS of 50% vs 72% (P < .001), and 3-year OS of 56% vs 76% (P < .001), whereas 3-year nonrelapse mortality estimates were similar (P = .53). Thus, despite high MRD conversion rates, outcomes MRD positive/MRD negative (MRDneg) patients are inferior to those of MRDneg/MRDneg patients, suggesting all patients with pre-HCT MRD should be considered for preemptive therapies after allografting.