Partitioning the Impacts of Spatial-Temporal Variation in Demography and Dispersal on Metapopulation Growth Rates

AbstractSpatial-temporal variation in environmental conditions is ubiquitous in nature. This variation simultaneously impacts survival, reproduction, and movement of individuals and thereby the rate at which metapopulations grow. Using the tools of stochastic demography, the metapopulation growth rate is decomposed into five components corresponding to temporal, spatial, and spatial-temporal variation in fitness and spatial and spatial-temporal covariation in dispersal and fitness. While temporal variation in fitness always reduces the metapopulation growth rate, all other sources of variation can either increase or reduce the metapopulation growth rate. Increases occur either by reducing the impacts of temporal variation or by generating a positive fitness-density covariance where individuals tend to concentrate in higher-quality patches. For example, positive autocorrelations in spatial-temporal variability in fitness generate this positive fitness-density covariance for less dispersive populations but decrease it for highly dispersive populations (e.g., migratory species). Negative autocorrelations in spatial-temporal variability have the opposite effects. Positive covariances between movement and future fitness, on short or long timescales, increase growth rates. These positive covariances can arise in unexpected ways. For example, the win-stay, lose-shift dispersal strategy in negatively autocorrelated environments can generate positive spatial covariances that exceed negative spatial-temporal covariances. This decomposition of the metapopulation growth rate provides a way to quantify the relative importance of fundamental sources of variation for metapopulation persistence.