The use of interleukin-10 (IL-10) and phosphorus levels as predictors of the time to improvement in COVID-19 patients: a prospective study

Abstract Early detection of COVID-19 improves the chance of recovery and helps identify high-risk patients. Our study aimed to statistically predict the time to improvement with the admission data of COVID-19 patients. Methods : Our prospective cohort study occurred between January and September 2022 at Alexandria University Hospital’s outpatient clinic and isolation department. We enrolled 43 patients after assessing their eligibility and collecting their baseline data. Results : The mean age was 34.8 years (± 12.3). Most of them were females (65.1%). The mean of oxygen saturation was 95.2% (± 2.8). We used linear regression to predict how long it would take to improve [time to improvement (days) = 1.186*P (mmol/L) + 0.010*IL-10 (pg/mL)]. Its diagnostic performance was 0.723 (95% CI: 0.552–0.894), and it was accurate at predicting improvement within a week but not at longer delays; additionally, its positive and negative predictive values were 56.3% and 85.2%, respectively. Conclusion : We recommend monitoring phosphorus and interleukin-10 levels. The time-to-improvement delay negatively correlated with a reduction in baseline oxygen saturation upon admission. Additionally, for every 0.84 meq/L increase in phosphorus or 100 pg/mL increase in interleukin-10, there was a 1-day delay provided that the other was constant, with a coefficient of determination of 85.9%.