Modeling Android Security Vulnerabilities: Insights from Statistical Distributions

Android operating system is a mobile operating system that supports multimedia features. Android offers a wide range of applications and integrated features for playing, recording, editing and sharing audio, video, images and other multimedia content. Most Android devices include cameras, speakers, microphones, and other multimedia components. In software security, vulnerabilities are critical concerns that often emerge during software development. Predicting these vulnerabilities post-release is essential for risk assessment and mitigation. While various models have been explored, the Android operating system remains relatively uncharted. This study delves into modeling Android security vulnerabilities using different statistical distributions, comparing their suitability to the widely-used Alhazmi-Malaiya Logistic (AML) model. Data from the National Vulnerability Database (NVD) spanning 2016 to 2018, along with Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS) scores, was analyzed. The study evaluates several distribution models, including Logistic, Weibull, Nakagami, Gamma, and Log-logistic, for monthly vulnerability counts and average monthly impact values. Goodness-of-fit tests and information criteria were applied for model robustness assessment. The findings offer valuable insights for researchers and Android software developers, aiding prediction, risk assessment, resource allocation, and research direction. Logistic and Nakagami distributions emerged as the best-fit models for average monthly impact values and monthly vulnerability counts, respectively. Finally, statistical methods perform better against known artificial intelligence methods for small data sets or more clearly defined data due to their flexible features such as comprehensibility, amount of data, need for calculation, and data independence.