Conceptual Model for Managing Sources of Danger in the Event of an Earthquake

Safety is defined as a state in which human activities are conducted in such a way that the realization of potential dangers is excluded with a certain probability. However, there is an established axiom: all human activities inherently carry some degree of danger. The criterion for assessing this danger is risk, which provides a quantitative measure of potential threats. Experience has shown that the previous concept of safety, which sought to eliminate all risks entirely (known as the "zero risk" concept), is not practical. Today, the prevailing safety approach is the concept of justified risk—the idea that certain levels of risk are deemed acceptable, based on current economic capabilities and social conditions, for the average citizen. This study presents the development of a conceptual model—a model of communication channels—created through system analysis. This model captures the dynamics of information flows regarding the status of danger sources within a potential earthquake zone. The conceptual model is composed of functional operators: B1, B2, B3, B4, B5, B6, and B7. One key area of this research is the mathematical modeling of emergencies and the forecasting of their potential consequences. Such modeling is crucial for enhancing the effectiveness of protective measures and improving disaster response strategies.