Global trade of green iron as a game changer for a near-zero global steel industry? - A scenario-based assessment of regionalized impacts

• Regional near-zero steel decarbonization pathways are combined into a global picture. • Scenarios show that nearly 30% of crude steel is produced with green iron in 2050. • Green iron can be produced in global “sweet spots” and transported overseas with low costs. • 15-26 Mt/a of hydrogen consumption can be relocated to global sweet spots for green iron export • 2.2-3.9% of global annual production costs can be saved through a global green iron trade. The currently most promising approach for reducing CO 2 emissions of the global steel production is reducing iron ore in shaft furnaces with (green) hydrogen instead of blast furnaces. Unlike to the liquid iron produced in blast furnaces, the direct reduced iron produced in this route (green iron) exists in a solid state and can be transported at reasonable costs over long distances. This allows for spatial decoupling of the iron reduction step from the steelmaking step and may lead to global trade in green iron as a new intermediate product in the steelmaking value chain. This article assesses the potential impact of a global green iron trade in terms of shifting energy demand between regions and in terms of cost savings by comparing three scenarios for a global near-zero GHG steel industry: The Domestic scenario, assuming strict regional co-location of green iron and steel production; The Max Trade scenario, assuming early emergence of a global green iron market and the Intermediate Trade scenario, assuming late emergence of a global green iron market. In the trade scenarios, 12-21% of global crude steel is produced from traded green iron in 2050. 15-26 Mt/a of hydrogen consumption is relocated to global “sweet spots”, resulting in cost savings of 2.2-3.9% of the global annual steel production costs, which can provide important support for the development of net zero steel production. Enablers and barriers for global green iron trade are discussed.