Development of a Formula for Calculating the Probability of the Spread of African Swine Fever

Robust epidemiological knowledge and predictive modelling tools are needed to address challenging objectives forecasting epidemics. Often, multiple modelling approaches can be used during an epidemic to support effective decision making in a timely manner. A formula has been developed for calculating the probability of spreading african swine fever from infected animals of a threatened pig farm to other farms. The formula allows you to calculate the probability of an outbreak of infection for pigs of each of the pig farms located in the analyzed area. This takes into account the possible ways of spreading the pathogen in the presence of mechanisms and factors of transmission of african swine fever in real time.