Hypoxia cycle in shallow lakes during winter (ice-covered to melting period): Stable and decay, hypoxia, and recovery phases

This study investigates hypoxic processes beneath lake ice and explores the interactions between water environmental factors and dissolved oxygen (DO) during winter, aiming to systematically assess the influence of winter climate changes on lake ecosystems through environmental variables (physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of water). A complete hypoxic cycle in a high-altitude shallow lake was recorded using high-frequency monitoring technology, and based on a predetermined hypoxic threshold (DO<2 mg/L), it was divided into three phases: stable and decay phase, hypoxic phase, and recovery phase. Significant trend changes of environmental variables under different levels of DO were analyzed for each phase using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. On the basis of evaluating the overall trend of the time series, a GAM multi-factor optimization model integrating interactive effects was constructed to explore the response mechanism of environmental variables to hypoxic processes. The optimized model showed excellent explanatory performance with R² values of 0.833 for the stable and decay phase and 0.932 for the recovery phase, with AIC values of 1554.72 and 721.03, respectively. The trend test combined with model analysis indicates that: (1) the decay of DO under the ice is primarily affected by the increase in EC, BGA, and EC*Temp, (2) the phytoplankton biomass in shallow lakes during winter has a definite contribution to the occurrence of oxygen deficiency, and (3) the water body experiences rapid reoxygenation after the ice layer breaks, but the DO level is restricted by the increase in temperature. This study highlights the ecosystem characteristics of shallow ice-covered lakes in cold arid regions, advancing our understanding of the response relationship between hypoxic aquatic environments under ice and environmental factors.