Anthropogenic influence on precipitation in Aotearoa New Zealand with differing circulation types

This study quantifies the influences of anthropogenic forcing to date on precipitation over Aotearoa New Zealand (ANZ). Large ensembles of simulations from the weather@home regional climate model experiments are analysed under two scenarios, a natural (NAT) or counter-factual scenario which excludes human-induced changes to the climate system and an anthropogenic (ANT) or factual scenario. The impacts of anthropogenic forcing on precipitation are analysed in the context of large-scale circulation types characterised using an existing Self Organising Map classification. The combined effect of both thermodynamics and dynamics are compared with values expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation. Changes in the precipitation intensity due to greenhouse gas-forced temperature rise are lower than the expected C-C value. However extreme precipitation changes approach the C-C value for some circulation types. Specifically westerly flows enhance precipitation change across ANZ relative to the C-C rate, particularly over the West Coast. Conversely, northwesterly flows reduce the change over the North Island relative to the C-C value. Moreover, the wet day frequency generally reduces in the ANT scenario relative to NAT, reductions are largest on the West Coast of the South Island for westerly flows. Additionally, the frequency of days with extreme precipitation rises over ANZ for most circulation patterns, except in Northland and for northwesterly flows. This underscores the combined influence of dynamics and thermodynamics in shaping both precipitation intensity and frequency patterns across ANZ. • Synoptic circulations influence precipitation change due to anthropogenic warming. • Wet day frequency reduces everywhere with anthropogenic warming while extreme precipitation frequency increases in some places. • Flows from the northwest display the least mean and extreme precipitation change. • Westerly winds cause the largest enhancement in mean and extreme precipitation change over the West Coast. • Extreme rainfall changes only reach the Clausius-Clapeyron rate on the West Coast.