7515 Plasma proteomic signatures for type 2 diabetes mellitus and related traits in the UK Biobank

Abstract Disclosure: T. Gupte: None. Z. Azizi: None. K. Nzenkue: None. P. Kho: None. M. Chen: None. J. Zhou: None. R. Guarischi-Sousa: None. D.J. Panyard: None. F. Abbasi: None. K. Watson: None. S. Clarke: None. P.S. Tsao: None. T.L. Assimes: None. Background: The plasma proteome holds promise as a future diagnostic and prognostic tool that can accurately reflect complex human traits and disease processes. We assessed the ability of plasma proteins to associate with two primary risk factors of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and to predict incident T2DM. Methods: Clinical, genetic, and high-throughput proteomic data from three subcohorts of 5586, 5584, and 36339 individuals in the UK Biobank were analyzed for association with DXA-measured truncal fat, maximum VO2, and incident T2DM, respectively. Exclusion criteria included prevalent T2DM, history of T1DM, or elevated A1c (>48 mmol/mol) values. We used LASSO to assess relative ability of 13 clinical variables including the Q-Diabetes (Q-D) score, 36 polygenic risk scores (PRSs), and 2923 proteins to associate with each trait by comparing variances explained (R2) and AUC statistics between data types. Stability selection with randomized LASSO identified the most robustly associated proteins for each trait. The benefit of proteomic signatures (PSs) over the Q-D score was evaluated through the derivation of Δ AUC values. Separate case-control groups were developed to evaluate T2DM prediction in the adiposity and fitness cohorts. Results: Across all three subcohorts, the mean age was 56.6 years, 54.9% were female, and 5.4% developed T2DM over a median follow-up of 7.7 years. In the adiposity cohort, a protein-only LASSO model explained 73.2% of the variance in truncal fat and GLIPR1, CLMP, LEP, FABP4, and FAM3C were among the top proteins selected. In the fitness cohort, a protein-only LASSO model explained 61.9% of the variance in maximum VO2 and LEP, CD99, AGRN, ELN, and CA14 were among the top proteins selected. LASSO-derived PSs increased the R2 of truncal fat and maximum VO2 over clinical and genetic factors by 13% and 1%, respectively, with the former also improving risk prediction of T2DM over Q-D [Δ AUC: 0.026 (95% CI -0.007, 0.060)]. In the T2DM cohort, a protein-only LASSO model returned an AUC of 0.856 (95% CI 0.840, 0.871) and PLXNB2, PODXL, PLA2G7, FGFR2, and NFASC were among the top proteins selected. We observed a similar improvement in T2DM prediction over Q-D [Δ AUC: 0.015 (95% CI 0.009, 0.023)] when using a PS derived strictly from the T2DM outcome and augmented with non-overlapping proteins associated with fat and fitness. A few proteins (ranging between 15-33 for each trait) identified by stability selection algorithms offered most of the improvement in risk prediction. Conclusion: Plasma PS modestly improves the prediction of T2DM over that possible with clinical and genetic factors. Further studies are warranted to better elucidate the clinical utility of these signatures in predicting T2DM risk over the standard practice of using the Q-D score. Presentation: 6/2/2024