Analysis of the Combined Impact of Socio-Economic Factors on House Price Volatility in the Housing Market

As an important variable in China’s economic system, real estate price is a key point closely linked to the country’s economy and people’s livelihood. It is of great practical significance to study the impact of socio-economic factors in the housing market on China’s house prices and its transmission mechanism, so as to put forward corresponding policy recommendations for stabilizing house prices and preventing real estate market and financial risks. Taking China’s time series data from 2014 to 2023 as a sample, this paper empirically investigates the law of the relationship between socio-economic factors in the housing market and house price fluctuations by constructing a structural vector autoregressive model, and employs impulse response function and variance decomposition to analyze the relationship between the two dynamically. The study shows that the 15-period variance decomposition effect of itself and residents’ disposable income are the main influencing factors of house price fluctuation, and the degree of explanation of its fluctuation is 55.5% and 23.2% respectively. In a market economy, real estate prices fluctuate up and down around their value due to the law of value. Therefore, real estate prices cannot rise indefinitely, and the final result should be stabilized within a reasonable level.