6635 A Call for High-Value Diabetic Retinopathy Screening and the Introduction of a Novel Predictive Model

Abstract Disclosure: P.J. Williams: None. C. Kim: None. K. Ziadeh: None. E. White: None. C.S. Chen-Milhone: None. L.D. Lugo: None. K.B. Ellis: None. M.S. Juzych: None. Introduction: Diabetic retinopathy (DR) remains one of the leading causes of preventable blindness in middle-aged and older populations. Late-stage DR is often visually symptomatic; however, early DR is generally asymptomatic and requires screening. For type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), the American Diabetes Association and the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases recommend an initial dilated eye exam with follow-up every 1-3 years, or annually if diabetic retinopathy is detected. Despite these guidelines, providers and insurers in the United States routinely recommend annual screening regardless of other factors. Methods: A cross-sectional analysis with prospective data verification was done for new diabetic eye exam referrals from August 2021 through July 2022 to address screening discrepancies. Established patients and referrals unrelated to hyperglycemia were excluded. Data collection included duration of diabetes, last hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), maximum HbA1c, age, race, gender, BMI, relevant medication use, and imaging, as well as the presence of hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN), diabetic nephropathy, diabetic amputation, and DR and data was verified against objective records up to 2 years later. Logistical multivariate analysis was conducted by a trained statistician. Results: 474 consecutive patients were referred over 1 year. Among all referrals, 2.11% (10/474) of patients were prediabetic. Among the patients with diabetes, 5.39% (25/464) were type 1 and 94.6% (439/464) were type 2. Among patients with T2DM, the average age was 57.64±11.52 (range = 25-98) and females made up 52.16% (229/439). The average diabetes duration among T2DM patients with DR was 19.39±8.45 years (range = 11-51) compared to 6.12±5.77 years (range = 0-31 years) without DR. Maximum lifetime HbA1c (p=0.0016), duration of diabetes (p<0.0001), and presence of DPN (p = 0.0047) were the strongest predictors of DR in patients with T2DM. A predictive model for DR was created utilizing these variables and hypercholesterolemia (p=0.048) with a predictive accuracy of 89.5% (chi-squared value (4)=121.451, p<0.001, Nagelkerke R2=57%). Sensitivity and specificity measured 92.31% and 87.99% respectively. The area under the ROC curve measured 0.952 (CI 0.925 to 0.972, p<0.0001). Conclusion: Duration of diabetes, maximum HbA1c, and DPN are strongly associated with DR among patients with T2DM and should be tracked to guide screening. Among T2DM patients with a well-documented recent onset of diabetes, maximum HbA1c less than 8, and benign initial eye exam, annual diabetic eye exams are unlikely to reveal DR in the first 10 years after onset. Based on our data, annual diabetic screening exams are unnecessary for many patients, and upper limits of screening intervals should be considered in low-risk patients to increase high-value care. Presentation: 6/2/2024