The effects of climate change on Pinus tabulaeformis radial growth in the Xiaowutai Mountains, northern China

Abstract Clarifying the climate change effects on the radial growth of trees has implications for sustainable forest management, especially under global warming. To investigate tree growth responses to regional climate change of Xiaowutai Mountain, four Chinese pine ( Pinus tabulaeformis ) ring-width index chronologies were established at different elevations (1290–1600 m). Species growth trends were estimated using climate change projections derived from global climate models. The results show: (1) the four ring-width chronologies exhibited strong statistical characteristics, making them suitable for dendroclimatology studies. Radial growth-climate relationships were highly consistent, showing a negative correlation with previous September temperatures and current May–June temperatures, as well as a positively correlated with precipitation and Palmer Drought Severity Index during the corresponding period; and (2) climate change scenarios revealed that temperature will gradually increase on the Xiaowutai Mountain, and only a slight variation in precipitation is expected. Chinese pine radial growth may show a decline under future climate change.