Predictors of Substantiation in Child Sexual Abuse Investigations in the United States

Abstract Purpose Child Protective Services (CPS) investigates millions of cases of child maltreatment each year in the United States. A sizeable percentage of these cases involve allegations of sexual abuse. Little is known about the factors that are associated with cases being substantiated. Method The present manuscript analyzes data collected by the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS), a census of all child protective services investigations or assessments conducted in all fifty states, plus the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, from October 1, 2018, through September 30, 2019. Results During this time period, CPS investigated 223,785 cases of alleged sexual abuse, of which 24.5% were substantiated. The substantiation rates varied considerably across states. A series of hierarchical logistic regressions revealed that cases involving female children were more likely to be substantiated than cases involving male children, that cases involving children age 10 + were more likely to be substantiated than children under age 10, as well as an interaction between age and sex such that age mattered to a lesser degree for male children than female children. The models also revealed that cases involving white children were more likely to be substantiated than cases involving non-white children, even after accounting for age, sex, and the jurisdiction in which the investigation took place. Conclusions The variation in substantiation rates across states underscores the need for further investigation into jurisdictional differences and the development of more consistent policies. Additionally, the disparities observed along lines of gender, age, and race point to the necessity of addressing potential biases in investigative practices. This study highlights the need for future research to explore the complex interplay of individual, community, and systemic factors that shape substantiation outcomes, ultimately guiding improvements in child protection services.