Feedback–feedforward signal control with exogenous demand estimation in congested urban road networks

To cope with uncertain traffic patterns and traffic models, traffic-responsive signal control strategies in the literature are designed to be robust to these uncertainties. These robust strategies still require sensing infrastructure to implement traffic-responsiveness. In this paper, we take a novel perspective and show that it is possible to use the already necessary sensing infrastructure to estimate the uncertain quantities in real time. Specifically, resorting to the store-and-forward model, we design a novel network-wide traffic-responsive strategy that estimates the occupancy and exogenous demand in each link, i.e., entering (exiting) vehicle flows at the origins (destinations) of the network or within links, in real time. Borrowing from optimal control theory, we design an optimal linear quadratic control scheme, consisting of a linear feedback term, of the occupancy of the road links, and a feedforward component, which accounts for the varying exogenous vehicle load on the network. Thereby, the resulting control scheme is a simple feedback–feedforward controller, which is fed with occupancy and exogenous demand estimates, and is suitable for real-time implementation. Numerical simulations for the urban traffic network of Chania, Greece, show that, for realistic surges in the exogenous demand, the proposed solution significantly outperforms tried-and-tested solutions that ignore the exogenous demand. • Design of network-wide signal control strategy under uncertain exogenous demand. • Estimation of uncertain demand in real time with limited sensing infrastructure. • Direct handling of non-recurrent demand variation, unlike pre-designed robust schemes. • Optimal linear quadratic control design yields a feedback–feedforward controller. • Demand estimation and feedforward term unlock significant performance.