An Analysis of Causality between Population Changes, Money Supply and Land Price Changes

This study analyzed the causality between population changes, currency volume, and property price fluctuations using lag distribution models and granger causality tests. As a result of attempting to verify the causality between population and property prices, it was analyzed that population has a causal relationship with property prices. Population growth immediately affects property prices, bringing about a property price increase effect approximately 3.49 times that of population growth over about 10 years. The variance decomposition analysis of property price changes showed that about 13-18% of property price changes are attributable to population changes. The causality analysis between currency volume and property prices revealed that an increase in currency volume also affects property prices. Shock response analysis indicated that an increase in currency volume affects property prices over approximately four years, with one unit change in currency volume resulting in a property price change of about 73.44% units over a period of about 10 years. The variance decomposition analysis showed that about 49% of property price changes are attributable to currency volume changes.