Urban planning for the futures; urban foresight

Urban planning for the coming decades must accommodate rapidly changing global conditions and communities that accept the plausibility of multiple futures and more innovative approaches to reach them. The article explores the attributes of the changing contextual conditions and new urban planning requirements, global uncertainty, chaos, urban syntax and complexity of the urban systems. Urban foresight is also discussed within the arguments of Childs, Dixon and Tewdwr-Jones, UNDP foresight manual, and other sources, for a better understanding of its theoretical core. The article ends with a comparative discussion of the urban foresight tools that can deal with “known unknowns” about the future (Childs 2023), so that “not-knowing” the future (Miller 2011) becomes an anticipated normal that requires dealing with cities as open networked systems (Batty 2018). Being interactive, creative, experience-based or evidence based as mentioned by Popper 2008 is briefly discussed for better understanding of the planners’ choice of tools.

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Publication Details

Journal
Ain Shams Engineering Journal
Published
2024-10-04
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asej.2024.103070
Citations
7
Primary Topic
demographic modeling and climate adaptation
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
3.43

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article

Urban planning for the futures; urban foresight

Ahmed Ouf
7 citations
Ain Shams Engineering Journal
demographic modeling and climate adaptation
3.43
article

Urban planning for the futures; urban foresight

Ahmed Ouf
article en
7 citations

Abstract

Urban planning for the coming decades must accommodate rapidly changing global conditions and communities that accept the plausibility of multiple futures and more innovative approaches to reach them. The article explores the attributes of the changing contextual conditions and new urban planning requirements, global uncertainty, chaos, urban syntax and complexity of the urban systems. Urban foresight is also discussed within the arguments of Childs, Dixon and Tewdwr-Jones, UNDP foresight manual, and other sources, for a better understanding of its theoretical core. The article ends with a comparative discussion of the urban foresight tools that can deal with “known unknowns” about the future (Childs 2023), so that “not-knowing” the future (Miller 2011) becomes an anticipated normal that requires dealing with cities as open networked systems (Batty 2018). Being interactive, creative, experience-based or evidence based as mentioned by Popper 2008 is briefly discussed for better understanding of the planners’ choice of tools.

Ain Shams Engineering JournalVol. 15(12)
Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical University (US)
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Sustainable cities and communities
Openalex Percentile: Top 7%
demographic modeling and climate adaptation
3.43
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Urban planning for the futures; urban foresight — Ahmed Ouf · Ain Shams Engineering Journal (2024) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS