Combinatorial innovation and lifecycle analysis of low-carbon energy technologies in China

• The study integrates combinatorial innovation theories with lifecycle analysis of low-carbon energy technologies. • The study identifies different trends of technology paradigms and their evolution. • Lagging regions should seize the opportunity during paradigm shifts. Measuring the lifecycle of low-carbon energy technologies is critical to better understanding the innovation pattern. However, previous studies on lifecycle either focus on technical details or just provide a general overview, due to the lack of connection with innovation theories. This article attempts to fill this gap by analyzing the lifecycle from a combinatorial innovation perspective, based on patent data of ten low-carbon energy technologies in China from 1999 to 2018. The problem of estimating lifecycle stages can be transformed into analyzing the rise and fall of knowledge combinations. By building the international patent classification (IPC) co-occurrence matrix, this paper demonstrates the lifecycle evolution of technologies and develops an efficient quantitative index to define lifecycle stages. The mathematical measurement can effectively reflect the evolutionary pattern of technologies. Additionally, this article relates the macro evolution of lifecycle to the micro dynamic mechanism of technology paradigms. The sign of technology maturity is that new inventions tend to follow the patterns established by prior ones. Following this logic, this paper identifies different trends of paradigms in each technology field and analyze their transition. Furthermore, catching-up literature shows that drastic transformation of technology paradigms may open “windows of opportunity” for laggard regions. From the results of this paper, it is clear to see that latecomers can catch up with pioneers especially when there is a radical change in paradigms. Therefore, it is important for policy makers to capture such opportunities during the technology lifecycle and coordinate regional innovation resources.