Prediction of land use/land cover and environmental estimation of carbon stocks in the Atlantic forest: A study in the state of Sergipe, Brazil

The forest ecosystems of the Atlantic Forest biome in Brazil are experiencing intense deforestation, contributing to climate change. Valuing the ecosystem service of CO2 sequestration can help in environmental policies to reduce deforestation and promote ecological restoration in this region. In this study, we sought to understand the dynamics of land use and land cover in the Atlantic Forest region of the state of Sergipe between 1985 and 2021 and to simulate land use and land cover for 2031 and 2051, assuming the current business as usual (BAU) trend was used as a reference scenario. The results showed that the agriculture-pasture mosaic class obtained the greatest percentage (5.27 %) and net (around 514.00 km²) increase among the land use and cover classes evaluated in the study area between 1985 and 2021. In the BAU scenario, total emissions reach 1,137,942.07 Mg CO2 in 2031 and 692,815.16 Mg CO2 in 2051, imposing an opportunity cost for society of US$ 7.94 million and US$ 4.35 million, respectively.