Predictors of risk reduction behavior: Evidence in last-mile communities

Despite extensive research using Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) to analyze factors influencing protective behaviors during disasters, understanding how last-mile communities in vulnerable contexts—particularly in the Philippines—respond to early warning messages remains limited. This understanding is crucial, as these communities often bear the brunt of extreme weather events. Drawing data from surveys and semi-structured interviews, this study examined the predictors of risk reduction behaviors before and after Super Typhoon Mangkhut in two last-mile communities in Northern Philippines — Cabalitian and Mapita. Regression analysis demonstrated that all threat appraisal variables—perceived vulnerability, perceived severity, and fear—are predictors of risk reduction behaviors before Mangkhut. Coping appraisal variables, specifically response efficacy and self-efficacy, also positively influenced risk reduction action before Mangkhut. Among socio-demographic variables, only gender and age are predictors of risk reduction behaviors, with their influence varying between the two communities. Expanding the application of PMT, prior typhoon experience, trust, and social network strength also positively and significantly influenced risk reduction behaviors before and after Mangkhut. The study identified key infrastructural, institutional, and operational interventions to enhance coping capacity and reduce vulnerability in these communities, alongside policy implications to inform disaster risk reduction strategies and empower local preparedness efforts. • All threat appraisal variables—perceived vulnerability, perceived severity, and fear—are predictors of risk reduction behavior before Mangkhut. • Response efficacy and perceived self-efficacy positively influenced risk reduction action before Mangkhut. • There are mixed results as to the influence of socio-demographic variables in relation to risk reduction action. • Past flood experiences, trust and social networks are predictors of protective behaviour before the super typhoon. • Infrastructural, institutional and operational interventions help build the coping capacity of last-mile communities.