Indo-Pacific regional extremes aggravated by changes in tropical weather patterns
The Pacific Walker circulation and the closely connected El Niño/Southern Oscillation influence the climate and weather of the tropical Indo-Pacific region. They specifically exert a strong control on the regional occurrence of weather extremes, such as heatwaves, heavy precipitation and prolonged dry spells, which are becoming increasingly frequent and severe. However, climate models struggle to accurately simulate large-scale circulation changes in the tropics and thus their consequences for regional weather and future climate. Here we use high-resolution ERA5 reanalysis data from 1940 to 2022 to study the occurrence trends of weather patterns in the tropical Indo-Pacific region. We find that new large-scale synoptic situations that were rarely present before the 1990s have emerged in the Indo-Pacific, while some others that were prominent have disappeared. Those new synoptic situations are associated with an unusual proportion of heatwaves and extreme precipitation in the region. These weather patterns are physically consistent with a trend towards a stronger Pacific Walker circulation, wetter and warmer conditions in Southeast Asia and drier conditions in the equatorial Pacific. These changes cannot be fully explained by El Niño/Southern Oscillation and other relevant modes of interannual variability, and other factors such as global warming, aerosol forcing, external forcing mechanisms and nonlinear mode interactions may be contributing. Emerging weather patterns over recent decades are exacerbating extreme precipitation and heatwaves in the tropical Indo-Pacific region, according to a computation of trends in reanalysis data.
Authors
- Gianpaolo Balsamo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1745-3634)
- Erika Coppola (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6944-5815)
- Suzana J. Camargo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0802-5160)
- Fabio D’Andrea (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6249-3168)
- Gabriele Messori (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2032-5211)
- Pascal Yiou (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8534-5355)
- Robin Noyelle (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0001-0127-6602)
- Mathieu Vrac (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6176-0439)
- Adriano Gualandi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3100-8932)
- Lucas Fery (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3679-5645)
- Gianmarco Mengaldo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0157-5477)
- Chen Chen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5884-1211)
- Davide Faranda (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5001-5698)
- Chenyu Dong (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0009-4494-7398)
Institutions
- The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) (IT)
- Uppsala University (SE)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- World Meteorological Organization (CH)
- École Polytechnique (FR)
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (US)
- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (GB)
- Stockholm University (SE)
- National University of Singapore (SG)
- Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (FR)
- University of Cambridge (GB)
- Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR)
- Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (IT)
- École Normale Supérieure - PSL (FR)
- Sorbonne Université (FR)
- Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (FR)
- Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (FR)
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (FR)
- CEA Paris-Saclay (FR)
- London Mathematical Laboratory (GB)
- Bolin Centre for Climate Research (SE)
- Clinical Nutrition Research Centre (SG)
- Columbia University (US)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Geoscience
- Published
- 2024-10-01
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01537-8
- Citations
- 18
- Primary Topic
- Climate variability and models
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 5.09