Pre- and Post-pandemic Analysis of Portugal’s Accommodation and Food Services Sector: a Shift-Share Approach

Portugal’s tourism industry is essential to the nation’s economy, significantly contributing to wealth creation and employment opportunities. However, the onset of the global COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 severely impacted this vital sector. The accommodation and food services were particularly hit, with many businesses facing widespread closures. By early 2022, Portugal’s economy faced additional hurdles. Geopolitical tensions and rising inflation created further disruptions on a global scale, complicating the recovery process. Despite these obstacles, Portugal’s accommodation and food services sector began to show promising signs of recovery. To gain a deeper understanding of these dynamics, this paper utilizes shift-share analysis to examine the post-pandemic business landscape of Portugal’s accommodation and food services sector, focusing on data from 2019 to 2022 for active businesses and the number of persons employed. This analytical method breaks down growth into national, sectoral, and regional components, providing a comprehensive view of the factors influencing recovery. The findings indicate that regional and industrial factors played a more significant role in driving recovery than national economic trends alone. Notably, regions such as the Algarve, Madeira, and Açores demonstrated remarkable resilience and growth. These areas benefited from their unique competitive advantages within the sector, which helped them navigate the challenging post-pandemic environment more effectively. The study’s insights are invaluable for policymakers and investors. By understanding the importance of regional policies and innovation, stakeholders can make targeted decisions that enhance the sector’s competitiveness and sustainability. JEL classification: L83, R11, Z30 Article History: Received: May 24, 2024; Reviewed: July 31, 2024; Accepted: September 17, 2024; Available online: September 23, 2024.