Modal Shift Potential of Different Mode Users Due to Introduction of the First MRT in Dhaka: A Prelaunch Study

Abstract Dhaka city is experiencing tremendous growth in traffic. Until recently, the city’s demand for traffic was entirely served by public buses, a mix of motorized and non-motorized paratransit, and private personalized transport. The first ever rail-based metro, mass rapid transit (MRT), namely MRT Line 6, was partially inaugurated on 28 December 2022. Authority expects that there will be visible modal shift. However, MRT systems in many Asian and European countries are attracting much lower private motorists than what is expected. Moreover, in Dhaka, a unique mix in road-based transport with public transit and varieties of paratransit and private personalized vehicles intensifies the uncertainties involved in modal shift. Therefore, based on a field survey done before four (04) months of the partial inauguration of MRT Line 6, this study intends to explore the modal shift potentials of different mode users to a completely new mode and the modal choice factors. The analysis of the results finds overall, 75% of all mode users are willing to shift, while para and public transit users are comparatively more willing than private personalized vehicle users. However, such willingness comes up with one or more conditions: comfort, reasonable fare, reduced total travel time, less crowd, etc. The study finds that affordability, availability, and accessibility factors have an influence on their modal shift behavior. Also, results from binary logistic model identify significant impact of several sociodemographic, trip- and accessibility-related factors influencing modal shift choice. Findings from this study explain the optimism regarding MRT by different mode users and inform the decision-makers about their course of actions including different interventions, strict and carrot approaches to hold on to the potential shifters and attract more.