Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting from Univariate Time Series of Water Reservoir Stations

This study presents an improved data-centric approach to short-term water demand forecasting using univariate time series from water reservoir levels. The dataset comprises water level recordings from 21 reservoirs in Eastern Thessaloniki collected over 15 months via a SCADA system provided by the water company EYATH S.A. The methodology involves data preprocessing, anomaly detection, data imputation, and the application of predictive models. Techniques such as the Interquartile Range method and moving standard deviation are employed to identify and handle anomalies. Missing values are imputed using LSTM networks optimized through the Optuna framework. This study emphasizes a data-centric approach in deep learning, focusing on improving data quality before model application, which has proven to enhance prediction accuracy. This strategy is crucial, especially in regions where reservoirs are the primary water source, and demand distribution cannot be solely determined by flow meter readings. LSTM, Random Forest Regressor, ARIMA, and SARIMA models are utilized to extract and analyze water level trends, enabling more accurate future water demand predictions. Results indicate that combining deep learning techniques with traditional statistical models significantly improves the accuracy and reliability of water demand predictions, providing a robust framework for optimizing water resource management.