Cellular automata modelling to simulate patterns of urban growth for Nusantara: Indonesia’s new capital

Abstract This paper uses cellular automata (CA) modelling to simulate possible patterns of urban growth for Nusantara–Indonesia’s new capital. The modelling uses criteria such as projected population growth and planned development stages and a range of relevant factors that influence urban development. Further the study simulates the possible impact of future urban growth on key biodiversity areas (KBAs). Two scenarios were modelled to simulate urban growth patterns–(1) the nature sensitive city and (2) the Indonesian government’s current plan. Results of the scenario-based CA modelling demonstrate that scenario 1 offers a more sustainable and liveable approach to urban growth, despite its larger land footprint. This is achieved by preserving protected and key biodiversity areas, which are essential for the long-term well-being and resilience of the environment. While scenario 2 is more land-efficient, it presents a possible risk to the overall ecological integrity and liveability of the metropolis by impinging into key biodiversity areas. The study’s cellular automata approach and methodology can be employed for urban planning and biodiversity impact assessment in similar contexts of new city development.