ENSO affects the North Atlantic Oscillation 1 year later

We demonstrate a 1-year lagged extratropical response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in observational analyses and climate models. The response maps onto the Arctic Oscillation and is strongest in the North Atlantic, where it resembles the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Unexpectedly, these 1-year lagged teleconnections are at least as strong as the better-known simultaneous winter connections. However, the 1-year lagged response is oppositein sign to the simultaneous response such that 1 year later, El Niño is followed by a positive NAO, whereas La Niña is followed by a negative NAO. The lagged response may also interfere with simultaneous ENSO teleconnections. We show here that these effects are unlikely to be caused by residual aliasing of ENSO cycles; rather, slowly migrating atmospheric angular momentum anomalies explain both the sign and the timing of the extratropical response. Our results have implications for understanding ENSO teleconnections, explaining observed extratropical climate variability and interpreting seasonal to interannual climate predictions.

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Publication Details

Journal
Science
Published
2024-10-03
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adk4671
Citations
28
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
7.91
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article

ENSO affects the North Atlantic Oscillation 1 year later

Doug Smith, Annelize van Niekerk, Bo Pang, Steven C. Hardiman et al.
28 citations
Science
Climate variability and models
7.91
article

ENSO affects the North Atlantic Oscillation 1 year later

Doug Smith, Annelize van Niekerk, Bo Pang, Steven C. Hardiman, James Renwick, Nick Dunstone, Albert Klein Tank, Sarah Ineson, Adam A. Scaife, Ned C. Williams, Chaofan Li, Riyu Lu
article en
28 citations

Abstract

We demonstrate a 1-year lagged extratropical response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in observational analyses and climate models. The response maps onto the Arctic Oscillation and is strongest in the North Atlantic, where it resembles the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Unexpectedly, these 1-year lagged teleconnections are at least as strong as the better-known simultaneous winter connections. However, the 1-year lagged response is oppositein sign to the simultaneous response such that 1 year later, El Niño is followed by a positive NAO, whereas La Niña is followed by a negative NAO. The lagged response may also interfere with simultaneous ENSO teleconnections. We show here that these effects are unlikely to be caused by residual aliasing of ENSO cycles; rather, slowly migrating atmospheric angular momentum anomalies explain both the sign and the timing of the extratropical response. Our results have implications for understanding ENSO teleconnections, explaining observed extratropical climate variability and interpreting seasonal to interannual climate predictions.

ScienceVol. 386(6717)
Met Office (GB), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (GB), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN), University of Exeter (GB), Victoria University of Wellington (NZ), Climate Centre (NL), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (CN), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (DE)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 2%
Climate variability and models
7.91
DOISourceOpenAlex
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