Study of the factors that influence the dynamics and forecasting of consumer fish prices

Using information of the Territorial body of the Federal State Statistics Service for the Primorsky Territory (Primorskstat), the dynamics of consumer price indices for fishery products in the country as a whole, the Far Eastern Federal District and the Primorsky Territory for 2002-2023, and the dynamics of prices by type of fish products in the Primorsky Territory for 2013-2023 were studied. It is concluded that the cost of fishery products has been steadily increasing throughout the analyzed period, and ahead of the inflation rate. The most intensive increase in the cost of processed fish, cut, more valuable in terms of nutritional characteristics. To determine the reasons for the constant growth, a correlation and regression analysis of the consumer price index for fishery products with other related indicators was carried out. Multicollinear factors were identified and excluded (consumer price index for food, per capita cash income of the population, fish consumption in the Primorsky Territory, industrial production index for the type of activity “Fishing and fish farming”). According to the criteria used in functional analysis, the multiple regression equation compiled using the remaining factors (inflation level and producer price index for fish products) was found to be untenable. As a result of excluding the factor “inflation level”, which had a less close connection with the performance indicator, a pair correlation model was obtained that describes the dependence of the consumer price index on the producer price index of fish products. The synthesized model is recognized as practically significant, and therefore can be used to obtain quantitative estimates of the consumer price index for fish products when forecasting.