Current and potential distribution of the invasive apple snail, <i>Pomacea canaliculata</i> in Eastern Africa: evidence from delimiting surveys and modelling studies

Abstract The invasive apple snail Pomacea canaliculata has become a significant concern in invaded habitats beyond its native range. It was reported in Kenya in 2020 invading one of the largest rice-producing schemes, the Mwea irrigation scheme. Delimiting surveys were conducted across five key rice-producing schemes (Mwea, Bura, Hola, Ahero and West Kano) in Kenya to establish the extent of the invasion and develop effective quarantine and management strategies within the Mwea scheme and other risk areas. Additionally, the ensemble model approach was used to model the potential distribution of P. canaliculata in Eastern Africa (as defined by the United Nations Geoscheme). Over 80% of the Mwea scheme was infested with P. canaliculata , an expansion from the initial infestation point (Ndekia). The mean number of adults/m 2 and egg clutches/m 2 were 8.4 ± 0.9 (SEM) and 7.7 ± 1.4 (SEM), respectively, with varying densities across sections. No adults or eggs of P. canaliculata were found in the four schemes outside the Mwea scheme. The model predicted high suitability for P. canaliculata in the southwest of Kenya,and in coastal areas, with all surveyed areas marked as highly suitable. . Regionally, high-risk areas include Malawi, Madagascar, and Uganda. Mozambique, Tanzania, and Ethiopia showed localised areas of high suitability. Conversely, Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia were largely unsuitable for P. canaliculata . Given the potential for further spread, strict quarantine measures are essential to prevent the spread of P. canaliculata in Kenya and its introduction to uninvaded regions of Eastern Africa. Alongside this, implementing IPM e strategies is crucial for effective pest management and the protection of agricultural ecosystems.