Soil Phosphorus Transport in Response to Climate Change at Mid‐High Latitudes Under Intensive Agriculture

ABSTRACT Phosphorus (P) is an important soil element for sustaining plant growth and the integrity of terrestrial ecosystems, and the soil P cycle is strongly influenced by climate change and agricultural activities. However, little is known about how soil P has evolved with climate change and intensive agriculture at mid‐high latitudes, where the soil P cycle is sensitive to climate change. To answer this question, an ecohydrological model (EcoHAT‐P) driven by remote sensing data was used in this study to calculate soil P concentration and loss and was calibrated and validated using 272 soil samples collected in the Sanjiang Plain, a typical mid‐high latitude region with a long history of strong agricultural activity. Soil P concentration and loss, and plant uptake of soil P, were analyzed for the years 2000–2019 and 2020–2040. The results showed that soil total P, soil P loss, and plant P uptake all increased under intensive agriculture. The soil P cycle at mid‐high latitudes was more sensitive to temperature than to precipitation. Increased temperature would increase soil P loss and plant P uptake by 93.94% and 8.16%, respectively, and soil legacy P from intensive agriculture would become the main source even if external P inputs were eliminated. The results highlight the evolution of soil P transport at mid‐high latitudes and clarify the response of soil P cycle to climate change under intensive agriculture.