Cardiovascular Risk Factors as Independent Predictors of Diabetic Retinopathy in Type II Diabetes Mellitus: The Development of a Predictive Model

<i>Background</i>: Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a leading cause of blindness in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Cardiovascular risk factors, such as hypertension, obesity, and dyslipidemia, may play a crucial role in the development and progression of DR, though the evidence remains mixed. This study aimed to assess cardiovascular risk factors as independent predictors of DR and to develop a predictive model for DR progression in T2DM patients. <i>Methods</i>: A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted on 377 patients with T2DM who underwent a comprehensive eye exam. Clinical data, including blood pressure, lipid profile, BMI, and smoking status, were collected. DR staging was determined through fundus photography and classified as No DR, Non-Proliferative DR (NPDR), and Mild, Moderate, Severe, or Proliferative DR (PDR). A Multivariate Logistic Regression was used to evaluate the association between cardiovascular risk factors and DR presence. Several machine learning models, including Random Forest, XGBoost, and Support Vector Machines, were applied to assess the predictive value of cardiovascular risk factors and identify key predictors. Model performance was evaluated using accuracy, precision, recall, and ROC-AUC. <i>Results</i>: The prevalence of DR in the cohort was 41.6%, with 34.5% having NPDR and 7.1% having PDR. A multivariate analysis identified systolic blood pressure (SBP), LDL cholesterol, and body mass index (BMI) as independent predictors of DR progression (<i>p</i> < 0.05). The Random Forest model showed a moderate predictive ability, with an AUC of 0.62 for distinguishing between the presence and absence of DR XGBoost showing a better performance, featuring a ROC-AUC of 0.68, while SBP, HDL cholesterol, and BMI were consistently identified as the most important predictors across models. After tuning, the XGBoost model showed a notable improvement, with an ROC-AUC of 0.72. <i>Conclusions</i>: Cardiovascular risk factors, particularly BP and BMI, play a significant role in the progression of DR in patients with T2DM. The predictive models, especially XGBoost, showed moderate accuracy in identifying DR stages, suggesting that integrating these risk factors into clinical practice may improve early detection and intervention strategies for DR.