Analyzing and predicting the urbanization and ecological resilience coupling and coordination of Guangdong Province

Taking 21 cities in Guangdong Province as the research object, this study quantitatively analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution of urbanization and ecological environment coupling from 2000 to 2020 using a coupling coordination model, and predicts the coordinated development of urbanization and ecological resilience coupling from 2000 to 2020 using an LSTM deep learning model. Analysis of the geographical data conveys the following observations: (1) Remotely sensed night-time luminosity data indicate a precipitous escalation in the urbanization quotient within Guangdong, with the Pearl River Delta, featuring Guangzhou and Shenzhen as hubs, exhibiting high levels of nocturnal radiance, in stark contrast to the lower and more dispersed illumination in the province’s northern latitudes. (2) Indices of ecological resilience suggest a progressive enhancement across Guangdong, with Maoming exhibiting the utmost resilience, succeeded by Jiangmen, Dongguan, Shenzhen, and Zhongshan in terms of ecological robustness. (3) The synergistic relationship between urbanization dynamics and ecological resilience metrics in Guangdong has been incrementally enhanced, with Qingyuan and Shaoguan exemplifying optimal coupling and coordination, while Zhongshan has experienced the most pronounced increment in these interdependencies. (4) The proportional advancement of urbanization and ecological resilience in the province is approaching a theoretical equilibrium state. (5) Projections based on spatiotemporal models forecast a gradual upgrade in the urban-ecological systems’ coupling and coordination coefficients from 2021 to 2025, with a general trend of incremental progression among the majority of the province’s urban centers towards a moderate level of integrated development.