A Flawed Policy Metaphor: An Empirical Test of Earlier Academic Promise and Later STEM Outcomes

Purpose: Although the science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) pipeline has been the most common policy framework to understand why ethnoracial disparities are some of the most glaring, few studies have empirically assessed whether the relationship between early academic preparation, such as for standardized tests, grades, and coursework, and later outcomes is the same across racial/ethnic groups. Research Methods/Approach: This study used administrative data from New York City, the largest, most diverse school district in the United States, and used descriptive alluvial plots and regression decomposition analyses. Findings: We find that STEM middle school-to-college pathways vary dramatically by ethnic groups within racial categories. Moreover, disparities in earlier test scores, high school diploma type, and school characteristics only explain why White English-speaking students major in STEM (in both 4- and 2-year institutions). Implications: The results of this study call into question policies that support a “one size fits all” argument that fostering earlier test scores can equalize access to STEM.