Technology availability, sector policies and behavioral change are complementary strategies for achieving net-zero emissions
In this study, we analyze the effects of technology availability, political coordination, and behavioral change on transformation pathways toward net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union by 2050. We implemented an iterative stakeholder dialogue to co-design the scenarios that were calculated using a global multi-regional energy-economy-land-climate model. We find that in scenarios without behavioral change and with restriction of technologies, the target of greenhouse gas neutrality in the European Union cannot be reached. Already a target of 200 Mt CO<sub>2</sub>eq/yr requires CO<sub>2</sub> prices above 100 €/tCO<sub>2</sub> in 2030 across all sectors in all scenarios. The required CO<sub>2</sub> price can increase to up to 450 €/tCO<sub>2</sub> by 2030 if technologies are constrained, if no complementary regulatory measures are implemented, and if changes in consumer behavior towards a more sustainable lifestyle do not materialize.
Authors
- Gunnar Luderer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9057-6155)
- Leon Merfort (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1704-6892)
- Elmar Kriegler (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3307-2647)
- Michaja Pehl (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2349-6515)
- Dennis Tänzler
- Nico Bauer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0211-4162)
- Jessica Strefler (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5279-4629)
- Marianna Rottoli (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7108-908X)
- Florian Humpenöder (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2927-9407)
- Renato Rodrigues (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5863-5514)
- Miodrag Stevanović (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1799-186X)
- Alexander Popp (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9500-1986)
- Robert Pietzcker (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9403-6711)
- David Klein (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0001-7917-8041)
Institutions
- University of Kassel (DE)
- University of Potsdam (DE)
- Leibniz Association (DE)
- Adelphi Research (DE)
- Technische Universität Berlin (DE)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2024-09-30
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-52424-0
- Citations
- 8
- Primary Topic
- Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 9.03
Funders
- European Commission
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
- Horizon 2020 Framework Programme