Atlantis end-to-end modeling to explore ecosystem dynamics in the Strait of Sicily, Central Mediterranean Sea

This paper describes the first application of the end-to-end model Atlantis in the Strait of Sicily (SoS). The model is designed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under the influence of fishing activities. Model performance was evaluated by comparing predicted biomass and catch of target species against observed data, utilizing multiple quantitative metrics. It reproduces accurately trophic dynamics, and biomass and catch of main target species in the SoS. Sensitivity analysis of the key model parameters identified nutrient loading and fishing pressure as the major processes influencing the ecosystem trophic spectrum and generating bottom-up and top-down effects. The results also emphasized the importance of incorporating uncertainty estimation in model predictions and robust selection of key parameters. The SoS Atlantis represents a strategic tool for the application of Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) in the Strait of Sicily and for assessing the effect of alternative management scenarios under a holistic framework. • The end-to-end Atlantis model was developed for the Strait of Sicily (SoS). • The model recreates trophic levels and ecological interactions of the ecosystem. • We tested the model skill to reproduce biomass and catch for target species. • Bottom-up and top-down trophic effects emerged from the model sensitivity runs. • The model can support EAFM development of fishery management plans in the SoS.