EXPECTED CHANGES IN THE TEMPERATURE REGIME IN THE AMUDARYA RIVER BASIN ACCORDING TO CMIP6 MODELS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE CURRENT CENTURY

This study considers probable changes in the characteristics of the temperature regime in the Amu Darya River basin by the middle of the 21st century. The assessment of changes is based on the results of multi-model ensembles of coupled global climate models participating in the sixth stage of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) under two combined scenarios of the global socio-economic development pathway and representative concentration pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The results indicate that the warming trend is expected to continue in all seasons of the year in the basin. By the middle of the century, probable changes in seasonal temperatures throughout the territory fit into the following range: 1.8-3.6 °C for winter; 1.8-3.1 °C for spring; 2.2-3.4 °C for summer; and 2.1-3.4 °C for autumn temperatures. Average annual temperatures may increase by 2.1-3.2 °C. An increase in the absolute maximum and minimum daily air temperatures, an increase in the frequency of extremely high air temperatures (above 35 and 40 ºС) and a decrease in the frequency of days with temperatures below 0 ºС are expected. The spatial distribution of changes in the characteristics of the temperature regime across the basin is given, which demonstrates similar patterns for two scenarios with stronger changes in accordance with the SSP5‑8.5 scenario.